I know, I know, I'm hardly going out on a limb in predicting that the most dominating player in the game will win the U.S. Open today. But it boils down to this: If somebody stuck gun to your head and said, "Pick the winner -- and if you're wrong, I pull the trigger," who would you pick?
The way I see it, Tiger shoots 70, maybe 71. He wins because everybody else just sort of melts away under the withering pressure. I doubt anybody blows up to, say, 80, but I think we'll see some 74s, 75s, 76s.
If I turn out to be wrong, my best guess is that Paul Casey will win. The guy is a thoroughbred who will eventually win a major, even if it isn't today. Maybe, just maybe Jim Furyk. I also think Aaron Baddeley has an outside shot.
Given the pressure, I'd be very surprised if Stephen Ames, Justin Rose or Bubba Watson wins.